Current U.S. stock market valuation chart

Our unique multi-metric algorithm uses a combination of classic indicators*, with historical interest rates, inflation and other metrics.

Step 1

You can access the full updated chart for only $12 per year

Latest daily & up-to-the-minute data is available with a Full Access account.

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IMPORTANT: This stock market valuation chart is not a forecaster of positive or negative directional changes that can occur in the market. We believe it can however offer a clearer picture of market conditions to help mitigate some investing risks and maximize returns over the long run.

*We mainly use the Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP) and the Shiller PE Ratio indicators within our market conditions calculation.

Step 2

Portfolio growth simulation tool

Based on the U.S. Stock Market Valuation chart above, you can play around and test different portfolio asset allocations for the different risk zones.

Your asset allocation

Red zone (55-100)

Stocks %:
Bonds %:
Cash %: 0

Orange zone (50-55)

Stocks %:
Bonds %:
Cash %: 0

Yellow zone (45-50)

Stocks %:
Bonds %:
Cash %: 0

Green zone (0-45)

Stocks %:
Bonds %:
Cash %: 0

Chart options

(only available with a Full Access account)
Only rebalance to buy more stock/S$P 500 in the green zone (below 45) when the chart moves lower.
Initial portfolio dollar amount:

Growth of $10,000 chart*

SmartMoneyUp Zone rebalancing

*The portfolio growth values include approximate SP500 dividend yield at each date. Bond returns are based on the 10 year treasury yield at each date as well as appreciation and depreciation fluctuations.


What metrics are used to create the chart?

The chart uses a combination of Shiller PE Ratio, historical interest rates, household debt levels, inflation and other metrics

Is this a tool that tries to time the market?

As most smart investors know, trying to time the market is a foolish strategy. Even if someone could be able to do it once, it will probably be impossible to repeat on a constant basis and will probably suffer humbling performance losses trying to do so. It is a well-known fact that simply staying fully invested in the S&P500 is normally a good idea over the long-term.

This stock market valuation tool, however, helps understand better what are the economic conditions in which the market operates. It helps define where is the intrinsic fair value (yellow zone) of the current stock market and invite to invest more within its margin of safety (green zone) for stronger and sustainable returns. Doing so tends to beat the return of the S&P 500 over full decade-long up and down cycles as demonstrated by the above data.

This chart alone cannot tell by itself when the stock market will change direction nor predict the swinging moods of "Mr. Market". Movement of this chart could also go in the opposite direction than the S&P 500 for short period of times (if interest rates and inflation go down rapidly for example).